RESEARCHERS at CSIRO, led by Dr Cedric Griffiths, have predicted the effects of climate change on the West Australian coastline and seabed.

The team used a program called Sedsimto model the Australian seabed and forecast the changes that could occur for three scenarios.

Seabed climate change modelling work by CSIRO could have important implications for WA's oil and gas industries / Image: Istockphoto

The high energy scenario forecasts the results if climate change would increase greatly with sea levels rising rapidly, high rainfall and more occurrences of the La Nina phenomenon. The results predict high levels of seabed and coastline erosion. The erosion would lead to instability for oil and gas rigs in the region, as well as the physical destruction of coral reef systems.

The low energy scenario, however, forecasts the destruction of coral reef systems due to changes in salinity and temperature. The scenario factors in falling sea levels, low rainfall and more El Nino occurrences. There would also be more deposition of material occurring on the seabed.

The third scenario predicts what would occur if the rate of climate change remained the same as the present day, with no significant change in rainfall or other oceanographic conditions. The results of this scenario were more stable, with slightly more deposition than erosion occurring along sections of the coastline.

“We need to develop more predictive models, a variety of models, and we need more data,” Dr Griffiths says.

In addition to more seabed data, refining climate predictions and developing new marine research facilities is essential. The current seabed data varies greatly in sample distribution and dates from fifty years ago. Scientists need to resample data to ensure that it is current before creating more predictive models.

Originally used in oil exploration, the successful use of the Sedsim model to study beach sediment transport prompted Dr Griffiths to use it as part of CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans project.

The results are important, Dr Griffiths says.

“Over 92 percent of Australia’s identified oil and gas resources lie offshore, and will be produced from facilities that are connected in some way to the seabed.

"The lack of knowledge of the magnitude and location of future seabed changes is not only potentially putting our offshore infrastructures, such as petroleum pipelines and platforms, at risk, but can also cause over-design. This research can help companies and authorities plan and manage coastal and offshore resources more effectively." 

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